Major Wall Street indexes closed lower on Tuesday as investors booked some profits from a post-election rally and turned cautious ahead of U.S. economic data due this week.
The three major indexes had rallied to record highs since the Nov. 5 U.S. election as investors bet on a boost to equities from President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tax cuts and the prospect of easier regulatory policies.
But investor enthusiasm was dampened on Tuesday. European shares lost 2% as European Central Bank policymakers warned that increased tariffs from Trump would hamper global growth.
Some of the stocks expected to perform well under Trump gave back gains with shares in electric car maker Tesla falling during Tuesday’s session after rising nearly 40% since election day.
The small-cap Russell 2000 index lost ground after closing at a three-year high on Monday. And rising U.S. Treasury yields hurt equities as bond investors priced in Trump policies.
“The 10-year Treasury yield is kind of creating a headwind against the equity rally. There’s sort of these conflicting signals where investors are celebrating all of these growth initiatives but the bond market is pushing back,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital.
“The problem is between tariffs, tax cuts and immigration restrictions, it really is pushing on creating inflation pressure that the bond market can’t ignore.”
Russell Price, chief economist at Ameriprise Financial, said the decline in stocks overseas added some pressure to U.S. stocks, along with profit-taking ahead of inflation data.
“When we opened up already experiencing some downside with the very strong run that we’ve had, investors tend to look to take some profits just in case stocks continue to slide,” Price said.
On investors’ radar is Wednesday’s consumer price inflation data, followed by producer prices inflation and retail sales data later this week, as these could provide clues about the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy path going forward.
The data presents a near-term risk to investments, said Price. “It very likely is contributing to a little bit of the downside that we’re seeing today.”
According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 lost 17.17 points, or 0.29%, to end at 5,984.18 points, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 16.00 points, or 0.08%, to 19,282.76. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 377.45 points, or 0.85%, to 43,915.68.
Markets have already dialed back expectations for interest-rate reductions over the next year, given strong economic data and the possible inflationary impact of some Trump policies.
Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari said Tuesday afternoon that U.S. monetary policy is “modestly restrictive,” with short-term borrowing costs continuing to slow inflation and the economy, but not by a lot.
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said earlier in the day that the U.S. central bank is ready to respond if inflation pressures rise or the job market weakens.
Biotech firm Novavax dropped after cutting its annual revenue forecast due to lower-than-expected sales of its COVID-19 vaccine.
Honeywell hit a record high after activist investor Elliott Investment said it has built a stake worth more than $5 billion in the industrial conglomerate.
Wall Street firms are expected to pay heftier bonuses for this year, the first increase since a bumper year in 2021, according to a report by compensation consultancy Johnson Associates.
Payouts will probably rise after financiers benefited from several factors in recent months: a recovery in dealmaking, the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates and equity markets surging to record highs, said the consultancy’s founder, Alan Johnson.
“This year has been surprisingly good, and the industry is quite optimistic about 2025, especially with the potential of announcing more M&A deals,” he said, referring to mergers and acquisitions.
While bonuses will be more generous, they will remain below the record levels from 2021, when revenue and compensation were “abnormally good,” Johnson said.
Investment bankers in debt underwriting are projected to receive the biggest surge in bonuses of 25% to 35% for 2024, the estimates showed, buoyed by a resurgence of activity. Their counterparts in equity capital markets will likely get boosts of 15% to 25%.
Meanwhile, a slower recovery for M&A will result in more modest bonus increases of 5% to 10% for bankers advising on transactions.
Traders will also reap a windfall from more volatility and rising equities, the report showed. Equity sales and trading professionals can expect their bonuses to climb about 15% to 20%, while in fixed income, payouts will probably rise 5% to 10%.
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