Supporters of the opposition candidate Edmundo González going house to house this month showing the presidential ballot to neighbors in El Junco, Venezuela. Adriana Loureiro Fernandez for The New York Times
By FRANCES ROBLES
Venezuelans will head to the polls July 28 to choose a new president, an election that could determine if democracy will be restored to the South American nation. It is also a vote that the United States played a role in helping ensure would take place.
Voters will pick between a little-known diplomat, Edmundo González, and Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, an autocratic leader who has been in office since 2013.
Many analysts are skeptical that Maduro would accept an electoral loss, and if that happened, it is unclear how the Biden administration would respond to a rejection of the results.
Here’s what to know about an election important to both countries.
What’s going on between the U.S. and Venezuela?
The past three U.S. presidents have been united on one policy: hitting the Venezuelan government with tough sanctions in response to corruption, anti-democratic moves and human rights abuses.
The United States and Venezuela have not had diplomatic relations since 2019.
But although then-President Donald Trump took a hard-line approach, the Biden administration tried a different tactic, meeting privately last year with Venezuelan government officials in Qatar, where they discussed lifting sanctions that had hobbled Venezuela’s vital oil industry.
Some experts said the Biden administration’s new strategy, which many had criticized as being too lenient, helped lay a foundation for the election and energized the opposition.
That, in part, helped spur talks between the Venezuelan government and the opposition that culminated in an agreement late last year meant to pave the way for free and fair elections — although since then, the Maduro administration has taken various steps to undermine the vote.
What leverage does the United States hold over Venezuela?
Using executive orders and a law called the Foreign Narcotics Kingpin Designation Act, the United States has imposed more than 350 sanctions against Venezuela in the past seven years. Trump’s administration froze Venezuelan assets in the United States.
The U.S. Department of Justice has charged Maduro with drug trafficking and offered a $15 million reward for information resulting in his arrest.
Did President Joe Biden lift the sanctions?
In October 2023, the Venezuelan government and a group of opposition parties known as the Unitary Platform signed an agreement intended to institute democratic reforms and create a path for elections.
After that deal, the Biden administration removed a ban on secondary trading on some Venezuelan bonds and eased various sanctions on oil for six months. The administration had promised to release millions of dollars for humanitarian use if the government held up its end of the bargain.
But instead, the Venezuelan government prevented a top opposition leader, María Corina Machado, who has emerged as one of the country’s most popular figures, from running for president. Dozens of opposition activists have been harassed and detained.
In April, the Biden administration allowed the sanctions relief to expire, and millions of dollars have not been released.
What is the Venezuelan government’s response?
The Venezuelan government considers U.S. sanctions illegal and blames Washington for the country’s economic crisis and for the exodus of nearly 8 million Venezuelans.
“Migration was promoted from Washington,” Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yván Gil Pinto told The Intercept last month. “Those who created those conditions, they must assume their responsibility, the responsibility of hurting our economy, and of creating a migrant attraction towards the United States.’’
(U.S. data shows that since 2021, more than 800,000 Venezuelan migrants entered the United States, including 114,695 in the first six months of this year.)
Gil also blamed what he called Venezuela’s “far-right” opposition for conspiring with the United States and predicted that, as a result, voters would reject the opposition at the polls.
What will the U.S. do if Maduro tries to manipulate the election?
Two senior U.S. government officials, who spoke to The New York Times on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic matters, said it was important to wait and see what happens before discussing any repercussions.
The international community should not render any judgment on the electoral process until there are results, one official said, noting that the administration was closely watching whether the Maduro government engages in any last-minute moves to undermine the democratic process.
The Biden administration is particularly concerned that the Maduro government could claim victory without verifiable results, the official said, adding that the ruling party is aware that its political future is pegged to the legitimacy of the vote.
Another U.S. official said that if Maduro loses — and accepts the loss — there would probably be negotiations over a transition of power, but added that those conversations had not yet taken place. Such talks could include issues such as amnesties, guarantees for those leaving office and establishing truth commissions.
What has the opposition said about U.S. relations?
González, the former longtime diplomat running for president, is eager to normalize diplomatic relations.
“I want Venezuela and the United States to recover and go back to the friendly or just natural relationship we’ve had for many years,” he said during a discussion Thursday sponsored by the Wilson Center, a nonpartisan research center in Washington. “It’s absurd, if not unbelievable,” he added, the number of years that Venezuela has been “without a diplomatic office in Washington.”
Political dialogue and cooperation are a must, González said.
“That’s something that we have to tackle immediately,” he added.