By Mike Sando / The Athletic
When I assessed the NFL’s MVP race a year ago, I lamented the dearth of candidates producing at levels high enough for consideration.
There’s no such problem as the 2024 MVP race enters its final stages.
Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow and Saquon Barkley are superstar talents whose conventional and/or advanced stats match historic standards for MVP consideration. How will the voters choose among them?
Jackson was my favorite a month ago, partly because his production was allowing Baltimore to win despite terrible support from the Ravens’ defense and special teams. The picture looks different now. Allen and Burrow have surged. Barkley, having topped 2,000 yards rushing, fits into a different category as a non-quarterback. The best case for him goes well beyond statistics.
The best MVP candidates, in my view, are high-producing, dynamic quarterbacks for teams that win despite lackluster support from their defenses and special teams. These are the ultimate win-because-of quarterbacks.
Patrick Mahomes set the standard. He led the 2022 Kansas City Chiefs to Super Bowl glory after the team finished 29th in combined expected points added (EPA) on defense and special teams. But Mahomes isn’t part of the discussion this year, despite Kansas City’s 15-1 record going into Week 18.
Jackson’s Ravens are 11-5 even though their defense and special teams rank 24th combined in EPA, while Allen’s Buffalo Bills are 13-3 while ranking 15th in those phases that usually are critical for winning; Burrow’s 8-8 Cincinnati Bengals are 29th.
Burrow was far out of MVP contention, per the betting odds, with only three weeks ago. But he jumped firmly into the mix after the Bengals’ Week 17 overtime win over the Denver Broncos.
Allen overtook Jackson as the betting favorite after a stretch from Week 11 to Week 15 in which Buffalo beat Kansas City, put up 42 points on the Los Angeles Rams and won at Detroit, 48-42. Jackson’s Ravens lost in Week 11 and Week 13 before taking off Week 14 for their bye.
As fans debate the MVP merits of their favorite players, let’s take a quick look at basic stats for Jackson, Allen and Burrow before evaluating them through other contextual lenses.
Ten quarterbacks have combined to win 21 MVP awards since 2000. Through 16 games, those quarterbacks averaged 4,373 yards passing with 37 touchdowns (or 40 total touchdowns, including rushing), nine interceptions and a 108.8 passer rating during their MVP seasons, per TruMedia. They averaged 165.9 total EPA on pass plays and rushes (0.27 per play), not counting kneel-downs.
Jackson, Allen and Burrow measure up to those standards except for Burrow’s 116.7 total EPA, which would rank 19th among those 21 MVP seasons, just behind 2021 Aaron Rodgers and ahead of 2003 Steve McNair. The lowest since 2000, by far, belonged to Jackson in 2023. His 51.5 EPA through 16 games was less than half the 16-game totals for the next-lowest MVP since 2000 (Cam Newton in 2015).
Jackson met the MVP threshold of 0.27 EPA per play 11 times of his 16 starts, compared with eight times for Allen and four for Burrow. Jackson also had the fewest games with negative EPA per play.
The Ravens have gone 11-0 when Jackson has produced at that MVP level, but 0-5 when he did not. The splits are 7-1 and 6-2 for Allen and 2-2 and 6-6 for Burrow.
This suggests that Baltimore has needed MVP production from its quarterback to win.
Burrow has elite receiving weapons in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Allen has a strong offensive line. Jackson has a dominant running back in Derrick Henry. These are factors worth noting, but I don’t see them as significant enough to tip the balance one way or another.
If the best MVP candidates are indeed dynamic quarterbacks whose elite production helps their teams overcome weak defense and special teams to win, another measure for that is the Betrayal Index, which measures the degree to which quarterbacks overcome poor play by their own teams’ defenses/special teams.
Burrow and Jackson have swapped places at the top since our check-in after Week 10, but Jackson has a much better record, which factors into the MVP equation. Being good enough on offense to overcome the other components and win is the goal. Sometimes, that’s unrealistic, but no MVP quarterback’s team has fared worse by winning percentage than an 11-5 record.
Jackson has played more overall games this season with below-average support from his team’s defense and special teams than Allen and Burrow have, although Burrow (five) and Allen (two) have combined to play seven games with worse defense/special teams support than the Ravens’ worst game. Buffalo’s offense has started a league-high 28 drives in opponent territory, compared with 19 for the Bengals and 14 for Baltimore. That helps explain why Allen’s Bills average more points per drive but less EPA per drive.
The quarterbacks have made their cases and still have one final weekend to bolster them (although Allen is expected to sit most of the finale). But what about Barkley?
Anyone arguing for a running back to win MVP risks getting laughed out of Math Club. The statistical value associated with Barkley’s 2,005-yard rushing season (13 touchdowns, 5.8 yards per carry) doesn’t compare to the value quarterbacks contribute mostly through passing.
Barkley’s 46.9 EPA on rushes and receptions ranks second to the Detroit Lions’ Jahmyr Gibbs (54.2) among running backs this season, which isn’t very exciting.
Only eight of the 35 running backs with at least 500 yards on the ground this season have produced positive EPA on even half of their rushes. Barkley is at 49%, meaning most of his runs actually cost the team value.
But there’s a case to be made that Barkley saved the Philadelphia Eagles this season by driving a philosophical shift that would not have occurred without him.
Did it take signing a running back of Barkley’s pedigree, ability and earning power for the Eagles to lean into the identity the offense needed to embrace to be their best selves? An MVP case for Barkley could make that point.
There’s a calm and consistency to the team’s offensive operation. Barkley appears to be the leading reason for that. He is also the ninth player to surpass 2,000 yards rushing, and he didn’t need a 17th game to get there. (O.J. Simpson was the only runner to do it in a 14-game season.)
The odds are against Barkley winning the award. Jackson, Allen and Burrow have provided more verifiable value to their teams. But it’s plausible to say that Barkley’s contributions go beyond the impressive numbers.
Voters have no shortage of viable candidates this season.