By Ken Rosenthal / The Athletic
Pittsburgh Pirates manager Derek Shelton, in stumping for Paul Skenes to win the National League Rookie of the Year award, offered a compelling argument when comparing his right-hander with San Diego Padres center fielder Jackson Merrill and Milwaukee Brewers center fielder Jackson Chourio.
“I respect what the two Jacksons are doing for sure, and they’re both really good players,” Shelton told reporters Sunday. “But I think when we start talking about guys that are doing things that are historic, that’s why it puts him in that category for me. That’s why I feel that he deserves to be the winner.”
Shelton, of course, is biased, as are many others who participate in these discussions, including fans. My friend Joel Sherman, of the New York Post, put it best when breaking down the American League MVP race between New York Yankees center fielder Aaron Judge and Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr.: “I don’t want to hear from Kansas City fans or New York fans,” Sherman said on the podcast he co-hosts with Jon Heyman. If Bobby Witt was the shortstop on the Yankees and Aaron Judge was the center fielder on the Royals, you people would vote a different way.”
Make no mistake, the “historic achievement” argument is a good one. Shohei Ohtani’s unprecedented season of 50 homers and 50 stolen bases elevates him in the NL MVP race.
Here’s the thing, though: Other awards contenders are making history, too. The achievements of Merrill and Chourio might not be as riveting as those of Skenes, who is the first pitcher in the modern era with 150 strikeouts and an ERA under 2.00 in his first 22 career games. And the achievements of Witt might not be as eye-popping as those of Judge, whose OPS+ entering Tuesday was the highest since Barry Bonds in 2004.
But the NL rookie and AL MVP races, are in the eye of the beholder, in part because the comparisons are not apples-to-apples. Skenes is a pitcher. Merrill and Chourio are position players. Judge derives most of his value from his offense. Witt not only leads the majors in batting average, but is also the game’s fastest player and a top defender.
In short, players in 2024 are doing a whole lot of cool things.
Go back to Skenes, whose ERA over 131 innings is 1.99. The only pitcher to record a lower ERA in his first 22 appearances, all of which were starts, was Steve Rogers, who spread his achievement with the Montreal Expos over two seasons, 1973 and ’74. Heady stuff, no doubt.
Merrill, though, counters with his six game-tying or go-ahead home runs in the eighth inning or later, tying him with Frank Robinson in 1956 for the most in a season by a player 21 or younger. Chourio, too, can boast of historic accomplishments. At 20 years and 185 days, he became the youngest player to produce a 20-20 season.
The separator among the three is volume. Merrill has appeared in 152 games, Chourio 143, Skenes just 22. Two years ago, the Atlanta Braves’ Spencer Strider threw approximately the same number of innings as Skenes, though his brilliance was not at the same level. Strider finished second to a candidate who was comparable to Merrill, his teammate Michael Harris II.
The last starting pitcher to win a Rookie of the Year Award, non-Ohtani division, was the Detroit Tigers’ Michael Fulmer in 2016. Fulmer threw more innings than Skenes (159), and the best of the position-player candidates that year was Yankees catcher Gary Sánchez, who played in only 53 games.
Jacob deGrom won the NL award in 2014 throwing only 140 1/3 innings, but the second- and third-place finishers, Billy Hamilton and Kolten Wong, both had on-base percentages below .300. José Fernández won in 2013 with a 2.19 ERA over 172 1/3 innings. Yasiel Puig, the runner-up, had big offensive numbers but appeared in only 104 games.
So, what is the proper placement for Skenes? First because of his sheer dominance? Second behind Merrill and ahead of Chourio, with the argument against Chourio being that on June 1, he was batting only .207 with a .575 OPS? Or third behind the two Jacksons, both of whom are contributing as everyday players for postseason teams?
It comes down to subjective judgment. There is no right or wrong answer. All I know is that I disagree with my colleague Jim Bowden, who advocates for two rookie awards, one for position players, one for pitchers. No, thank you.
The beauty of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America awards is that they stimulate conversation. The lack of clarity over the meaning of “most valuable,” the different standards writers apply for manager of the year ... yes! Long live the ambiguity! Often, it leads to informed debate.
Consider the AL MVP race. Judge, in addition to his stunning advanced offensive metrics, also is only the fifth player to produce two or more seasons of at least 56 homers, joining Babe Ruth, Ken Griffey Jr., Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa, the latter two of which either admitted to or were reported to have used performance-enhancing drugs. Yet, Witt is leaving his own distinctive mark.
Using FanGraphs’ version of wins above replacement, Witt has produced the fifth-best season by a shortstop and the best by any player in his age-24 season or younger since the expansion era began in 1961. The last 24-or-younger player with a better fWAR was Mickey Mantle in 1956, when he won MVP.
No other shortstop in AL or NL history has produced multiple 30-30 seasons. No other player, regardless of position, has produced multiple 30-30 seasons within his first three major league campaigns. And Witt also is only the second shortstop to go 30-30 with 100 runs and 100 RBI, joining Alex Rodríguez, who did it in 1998 with the Seattle Mariners.
Age should not factor into awards voting. Nor should multiyear accomplishments — Judge with his 56-homer campaigns, Witt with his 30-30s. Those numbers, however, provide context for the historical nature of each player’s performance.
MLB.com’s Mike Petriello put it well, writing that if Witt finishes second, his season will go down as one of the best ever by a player who did not win the MVP. And that he only might lose because it’s taking “one of the best seasons in baseball history” — Judge’s mammoth 2024 effort — “to top him.”
Historic achievements matter. Shelton had it right when talking about Skenes. The problem with both the NL rookie and AL MVP races, if you want to call it that, is that multiple candidates are doing things we’ve never seen before. Great for the game. Not so great for the voters who need to decide which ones are most worthy.
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